On-chain punditry · three engines · one registry

THE PIT

Tonight●3 rounds●Sealed before kickoff●Graded by the chain
Main event · World Cup Final
Spain v Argentina
kickoff 2026-07-19 · 19:00 UTC — all three slips sealed on-chain 19 hours before kickoff

Tale of the tape

registered · promised · answerable

THE STEAMER

momentum — backs the side the market is steaming toward
Record
2–2
Cadence promise
1 slip/day, on the record
Strategy params
pit/steamer/v1|lookbackH=6|pickBy=max-prob-delta|totals=steam-side|late=goals-lambda+steam

“Follows the money. Never early, never wrong for long.”

strategy account on-chain ↗

THE QUANT

value — fits a Poisson model to the handicap/totals ladder, backs the side the 1X2 underprices
Record
2–2
Cadence promise
1 slip/day, on the record
Strategy params
pit/quant/v1|model=poisson|supremacy=ah-even-line|total=primary-ou|pickBy=max-model-edge|late=lambda*19/94*1.25

“Two lambdas and a hash function. That is the whole act.”

strategy account on-chain ↗

THE HEEL

contrarian — fades the biggest public move on the board
Record
2–2
Cadence promise
1 slip/day, on the record
Strategy params
pit/heel/v1|lookbackH=6|pickBy=min-prob-delta|totals=fade-steam|late=fade-crowd

“Your favourite pundit's least favourite pundit.”

strategy account on-chain ↗

The card

replays graded retroactively — only the main event was sealed before its own kickoff
Round 3Spain v ArgentinaMain EventSealedkickoff 2026-07-19 · 19:00 UTC
The Steamer
Sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC
keccak256 61af06bad5f1dc99fa72957eb11018188cbc80cd3f47eee905bc35b8df0753be — commitment account
The Quant
Sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
keccak256 7d6a6c021579af795c9efac86980a7d344b59361194ce0acaa9cacea61782f16 — commitment account
The Heel
Sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
keccak256 9ca24c1e00fb50336cabb025255be62eed5f84dd4769b21e9b255e382d6ed816 — commitment account
Round 1France v EnglandReplayFT 4–6kickoff 2026-07-18 · 21:00 UTC
The Steamer
WinnerFrance57%MISS
Goalsunder 469%MISS
Goal after 75'yes58%HIT
“Money moved 489bps onto France in six hours. I go where it goes.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · on-chain commitment
The Quant
WinnerEngland25%HIT
Goalsunder 470%MISS
Goal after 75'yes60%HIT
“Two Poissons fitted to the handicap ladder make England 24.9%; the 1X2 says 20.9%. That is 403 basis points the market is giving away.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · on-chain commitment
The Heel
WinnerEngland21%HIT
Goalsover 431%HIT
Goal after 75'no60%MISS
“The herd dumped England for France. Herds drown. I'll take the side they left warm.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · on-chain commitment
Round 2Vietnam v MyanmarReplaykickoff 2026-07-18 · 12:00 UTC
The Steamer
WinnerVietnam87%HIT
Goalsover 3.552%NO ACTION
Goal after 75'yes76%NO ACTION
“Money moved 714bps onto Vietnam in six hours. I go where it goes.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · on-chain commitment · graded from the market's closing prints — devnet retains no score record for this fixture, so only the winner leg settles
The Quant
WinnerDraw10%MISS
Goalsunder 3.553%NO ACTION
Goal after 75'yes59%NO ACTION
“Two Poissons fitted to the handicap ladder make Draw 9.6%; the 1X2 says 8.9%. That is 66 basis points the market is giving away.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · on-chain commitment · graded from the market's closing prints — devnet retains no score record for this fixture, so only the winner leg settles
The Heel
WinnerDraw9%MISS
Goalsunder 3.548%NO ACTION
Goal after 75'no59%NO ACTION
“The herd dumped Draw for Vietnam. Herds drown. I'll take the side they left warm.”
sealed 2026-07-18 · 23:09 UTC · on-chain commitment · graded from the market's closing prints — devnet retains no score record for this fixture, so only the winner leg settles

From the corners

house voices · templated
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': NO ACTIONlate goal after 75': no action. Even I can't argue with a void leg. Watch me try anyway.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: NO ACTIONtotal goals: no action. Even I can't argue with a void leg. Watch me try anyway.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': NO ACTIONlate goal after 75': void. Insufficient settlement data survives on this feed tier — recorded as such, not massaged.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: MISSmatch winner misses. Even the house wins one now and then. It's carved on the chain — I don't get to pretend otherwise, unlike your mates.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: NO ACTIONtotal goals: void. Insufficient settlement data survives on this feed tier — recorded as such, not massaged.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Open it up. Yes, that's really the pick. No, I wasn't joking. receipt ↗
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: MISSWrong on match winner. Variance pays no rent this week. The model stands.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Opened. The payload matches the commitment because it must. Trust is for people without hash functions. receipt ↗
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': NO ACTIONlate goal after 75': no action. The record keeps the silence too — that's what makes it a record.
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: NO ACTIONtotal goals: no action. The record keeps the silence too — that's what makes it a record.
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: HITmatch winner: landed. The money knew. The money always knows.
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Opened. No edits, no mates' rates, hash checks out. That's the whole point of the wax. receipt ↗
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': MISSlate goal after 75' misses. Even the house wins one now and then. It's carved on the chain — I don't get to pretend otherwise, unlike your mates.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: HITtotal goals LANDS. Go on, check the hash. Cry into it.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': HITlate goal after 75': correct. Not lucky — priced. There's a difference and it compounds.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: HITThat's match winner for the villain. The herd sends its regards from the bottom of the river.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: MISSWrong on total goals. Variance pays no rent this week. The model stands.
The Heel
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Revealed. Exactly what I sealed, which is more than your group chat can say. receipt ↗
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: HITmatch winner settles as priced. Expected value is a patient landlord.
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
late goal after 75': HITAnother one for the till. late goal after 75' comes in and the tide takes a bow.
The Quant
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Opened. The payload matches the commitment because it must. Trust is for people without hash functions. receipt ↗
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
total goals: MISSWrong on total goals. The crowd can be early and still be wrong — tonight we were both.
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
match winner: MISSWrong on match winner. The crowd can be early and still be wrong — tonight we were both.
The Steamer
2026-07-18 · 23:10 UTC
Opened. No edits, no mates' rates, hash checks out. That's the whole point of the wax. receipt ↗